J-League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka
Likeliest: Cerezo Osaka win · 41%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nagoya Grampus32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Cerezo Osaka41%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nagoya Grampus
LossLossLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Kashiwa Reysol (A)3-1
- Oct 11 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · at FC Tokyo (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · at V-Varen Nagasaki (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Machida Zelvia (H)1-3
Cerezo Osaka
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Kawasaki Frontale (H)2-4
- Oct 10 · v Yokohama F. Marinos (H)0-0
- Oct 7 · v Kagoshima United (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at V-Varen Nagasaki (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Sanfrecce Hiroshima (A)1-6
| Last 10 games | Nagoya Grampus | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.