J-League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 25 · 05:00 · Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos
Likeliest: Nagoya Grampus win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Nagoya Grampus37%——
OursMarket
Draw27%——
OursMarket
Yokohama F. Marinos36%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nagoya Grampus
LossLossLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Kashiwa Reysol (A)3-1
- Oct 11 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · at FC Tokyo (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · at V-Varen Nagasaki (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Machida Zelvia (H)1-3
Yokohama F. Marinos
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · at JEF United Chiba (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Cerezo Osaka (A)0-0
- Oct 7 · v Kyoto Sangyo University (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Mito Hollyhock (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Machida Zelvia (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Nagoya Grampus | Yokohama F. Marinos |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.