V-League (Vietnam) · Sun, Sep 6 · 11:00 · Nam Định vs Hoàng Anh Gia Lai
Likeliest: Nam Định win · 59%
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nam Định59%71%−12
OursMarket
Draw22%18%+4
OursMarket
Hoàng Anh Gia Lai19%11%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 59% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 89% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 29% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 82% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 87% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nam Định
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Jun 7 · at Hải Phòng (A)1-1
- Jun 7 · at Hải Phòng (A)1-1
- May 31 · v Sông Lam Nghệ An (H)3-0
- May 31 · v Sông Lam Nghệ An (H)3-0
- May 24 · at Hà Nội (A)1-2
Hoàng Anh Gia Lai
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Jun 7 · at Becamex Bình Dương (A)1-3
- Jun 7 · at Becamex Hồ Chí Minh U19 (A)1-3
- May 31 · v Hà Nội (H)3-1
- May 23 · at Đông Á Thanh Hoá (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Nam Định | Hoàng Anh Gia Lai |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.