Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:00 · Nancy vs Guingamp
Likeliest: Nancy win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nancy40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Guingamp31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nancy
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 18 · at Rodez AF (A)4-3
- Sep 11 · v Stade de Reims (H)1-2
- Sep 7 · at Nantes (A)0-1
- Aug 28 · v USL Dunkerque (H)2-0
- Aug 21 · at Pau FC (A)1-0
Guingamp
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- Sep 19 · v Red Star FC (H)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Annecy FC (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Stade de Reims (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Nantes (H)3-3
- Aug 21 · at Sochaux (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Nancy | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.