Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Mar 13 · 19:00 · Nancy vs Le Mans
Likeliest: Nancy win · 36%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nancy36%35%+1
OursMarket
Draw28%30%−2
OursMarket
Le Mans36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 44% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 51% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 50% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nancy
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Mar 6 · v Montpellier (H)0-3
- Feb 27 · at Laval (A)1-1
- Feb 20 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)0-0
- Feb 13 · at Red Star (A)1-2
- Feb 7 · v Troyes (H)2-1
Le Mans
DrawLossDrawDrawWin
- Mar 7 · v Annecy (H)3-0
- Feb 28 · at Red Star (A)0-0
- Feb 23 · v Guingamp (H)1-1
- Feb 14 · at Montpellier (A)2-4
- Feb 7 · v Laval (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Nancy | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.