Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Aug 14 · 18:45 · Nancy vs Montpellier
Likeliest: Nancy win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 35%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nancy50%35%+15
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−2
OursMarket
Montpellier24%37%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 63% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 65% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 48% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nancy
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Aug 8 · at US Boulogne Côte-d'Opale (A)0-0
- May 9 · v Dunkerque (H)3-2
- May 2 · at Pau (A)3-1
- Apr 25 · at Reims (A)1-1
- Apr 17 · v Annecy (H)1-5
Montpellier
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Aug 8 · v Dijon (H)1-1
- May 9 · at Red Star (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Clermont (H)1-2
- Apr 24 · at Amiens SC (A)2-0
- Apr 17 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Nancy | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.