Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00 · Nancy vs Stade Lavallois
Likeliest: Nancy win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nancy53%55%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
Stade Lavallois21%20%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 80% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 45% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nancy
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 16 · at Annecy FC (A)2-1
- Oct 9 · v Guingamp (H)1-0
- Sep 18 · at Rodez AF (A)4-3
- Sep 11 · v Stade de Reims (H)1-2
- Sep 7 · at Nantes (A)0-1
Stade Lavallois
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 16 · v Clermont Foot (H)3-3
- Oct 9 · at Pau FC (A)2-3
- Sep 18 · v Sochaux (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Dijon (A)2-3
- Sep 4 · v Red Star FC (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Nancy | Stade Lavallois |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.