Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Mar 7 · 16:00 · Nantes vs Angers SCO
Likeliest: Nantes win · 49%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nantes49%43%+6
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−6
OursMarket
Angers SCO27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 41% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 48% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 57% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 61% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nantes
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Mar 1 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-1
- Feb 22 · v Le Havre (H)2-0
- Feb 13 · at Monaco (A)1-3
- Feb 7 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-1
- Jan 31 · at Lorient (A)1-2
Angers SCO
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Feb 28 · at Monaco (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-1
- Feb 15 · at Lorient (A)0-2
- Feb 8 · v Toulouse (H)1-0
- Feb 1 · v Metz (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Nantes | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-7 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.