Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 19 · 15:15 · Nantes vs Brest
Likeliest: Nantes win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 40%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nantes50%40%+10
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Brest26%31%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 44% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 60% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 56% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nantes
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Apr 11 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
- Apr 5 · at Metz (A)0-0
- Mar 22 · v Strasbourg (H)2-3
- Mar 7 · v Angers SCO (H)0-1
- Mar 1 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-1
Brest
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Apr 4 · v Rennes (H)3-4
- Mar 21 · at Auxerre (A)0-3
- Mar 14 · at Monaco (A)0-2
- Mar 8 · v Le Havre (H)2-0
- Mar 1 · at Metz (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Nantes | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-7 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.