Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 22 · 16:15 · Nantes vs Le Havre
Likeliest: Nantes win · 50%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nantes50%39%+10
OursMarket
Draw22%29%−7
OursMarket
Le Havre28%32%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 45% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 51% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 61% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 71% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 55% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nantes
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Feb 13 · at Monaco (A)1-3
- Feb 7 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-1
- Jan 31 · at Lorient (A)1-2
- Jan 25 · v Nice (H)1-4
- Jan 18 · v Paris (H)1-2
Le Havre
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Feb 15 · v Toulouse (H)2-1
- Feb 8 · v Strasbourg (H)2-1
- Jan 30 · at Lens (A)0-1
- Jan 24 · v Monaco (H)0-0
- Jan 18 · at Rennes (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Nantes | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-7 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.