Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 23 · 14:00 · Nantes vs Lens
Likeliest: Nantes win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Nantes47%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Lens27%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nantes
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Feb 15 · at Monaco (A)1-7
- Feb 7 · v Brest (H)0-2
- Feb 2 · at Reims (A)2-1
- Jan 26 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-1
- Jan 19 · at Saint-Étienne (A)1-1
Lens
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Feb 16 · v Strasbourg (H)0-2
- Feb 8 · at Nice (A)0-2
- Jan 31 · at Montpellier (A)2-0
- Jan 26 · v Angers SCO (H)1-0
- Jan 18 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Nantes | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-3 | 3-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 29% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 29% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.