Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Dec 6 · 16:00 · Nantes vs Lens
Likeliest: Nantes win · 39%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nantes39%19%+20
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Lens36%56%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 54% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 44% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 81% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 26% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nantes
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Nov 30 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-3
- Nov 23 · v Lorient (H)1-1
- Nov 8 · at Le Havre (A)1-1
- Nov 2 · v Metz (H)0-2
- Oct 29 · v Monaco (H)3-5
Lens
LossWinWinWinWin
- Nov 30 · at Angers SCO (A)2-1
- Nov 22 · v Strasbourg (H)1-0
- Nov 8 · at Monaco (A)4-1
- Nov 2 · v Lorient (H)3-0
- Oct 29 · at Metz (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Nantes | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.