Ligue 2 (France) · Mon, Sep 7 · 18:45 · Nantes vs Nancy
Likeliest: Nantes win · 41%
A 33% away win. The market says 24%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nantes41%49%−7
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Nancy33%24%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 76% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 67% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nantes
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Aug 29 · at Guingamp (A)3-3
- Aug 22 · v Rodez AF (H)2-5
- Aug 14 · at Stade Lavallois (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Red Star FC (H)0-1
- May 8 · at Lens (A)0-1
Nancy
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Aug 28 · v USL Dunkerque (H)2-0
- Aug 21 · at Pau FC (A)1-0
- Aug 14 · v Montpellier (H)0-1
- Aug 8 · at US Boulogne Côte-d'Opale (A)0-0
- May 9 · v Dunkerque (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Nantes | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 2-7-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.