Coupe de France (France) · Sun, Jan 11 · 17:00 · Nantes vs Nice
Likeliest: Nice win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nantes37%33%+4
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Nice41%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 57% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 67% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 45% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nantes
LossLossLossWinWin
- Jan 4 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-0
- Dec 21 · at Concarneau (A)5-3
- Dec 12 · at Angers SCO (A)1-4
- Dec 6 · v Lens (H)1-2
- Nov 30 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-3
Nice
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Jan 3 · v Strasbourg (H)1-1
- Dec 21 · v Saint-Étienne (H)2-1
- Dec 14 · at Lens (A)0-2
- Dec 11 · v Sporting Braga (H)0-1
- Dec 7 · v Angers SCO (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Nantes | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.