Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Jan 25 · 14:00 · Nantes vs Nice
Likeliest: Nantes win · 40%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nantes40%33%+7
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Nice34%39%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 57% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 61% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 67% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 46% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nantes
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Jan 18 · v Paris (H)1-2
- Jan 11 · v Nice (H)1-1
- Jan 4 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-0
- Dec 21 · at Concarneau (A)5-3
- Dec 12 · at Angers SCO (A)1-4
Nice
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Jan 22 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)3-1
- Jan 17 · at Toulouse (A)1-5
- Jan 11 · at Nantes (A)1-1
- Jan 3 · v Strasbourg (H)1-1
- Dec 21 · v Saint-Étienne (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Nantes | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.