Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Feb 7 · 20:05 · Nantes vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 52%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nantes25%20%+5
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−3
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais52%55%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 50% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 51% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 45% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 80% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 27% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nantes
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Jan 31 · at Lorient (A)1-2
- Jan 25 · v Nice (H)1-4
- Jan 18 · v Paris (H)1-2
- Jan 11 · v Nice (H)1-1
- Jan 4 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-0
Olympique Lyonnais
WinWinWinWinWin
- Feb 4 · v Laval (H)2-0
- Feb 1 · v LOSC Lille (H)1-0
- Jan 29 · v PAOK (H)4-2
- Jan 25 · at Metz (A)5-2
- Jan 22 · at Young Boys (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Nantes | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 10-0-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.