Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, May 2 · 13:00 · Nantes vs Olympique Marseille
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 45%
We make it 69% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 58%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nantes31%22%+9
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Olympique Marseille45%54%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 58% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 46% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 78% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 29% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nantes
DrawDrawDrawLossLoss
- Apr 26 · at Rennes (A)1-2
- Apr 22 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-3
- Apr 19 · v Brest (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
- Apr 5 · at Metz (A)0-0
Olympique Marseille
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Apr 26 · v Nice (H)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Lorient (A)0-2
- Apr 10 · v Metz (H)3-1
- Apr 5 · at Monaco (A)1-2
- Mar 22 · v LOSC Lille (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Nantes | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.