Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Aug 8 · 18:45 · Nantes vs Red Star FC
Likeliest: Nantes win · 42%
A 32% away win. The market says 23%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nantes42%50%−8
OursMarket
Draw27%27%−1
OursMarket
Red Star FC32%23%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 47% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 77% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 68% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nantes
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- May 8 · at Lens (A)0-1
- May 2 · v Olympique Marseille (H)3-0
- Apr 26 · at Rennes (A)1-2
- Apr 22 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-3
- Apr 19 · v Brest (H)1-1
Red Star FC
No recent results tracked.
| Last 10 games | Nantes | Red Star FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — |
| Both teams scored | 30% | — |
| Clean sheets | 30% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.