Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Aug 22 · 12:00 · Nantes vs Rodez AF
Likeliest: Rodez AF win · 43%
We make it 64% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nantes34%54%−20
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Rodez AF43%21%+22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 52% | −16 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 79% | −22 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 46% | +20 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 72% | −28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nantes
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 14 · at Stade Lavallois (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Red Star FC (H)0-1
- May 8 · at Lens (A)0-1
- May 2 · v Olympique Marseille (H)3-0
- Apr 26 · at Rennes (A)1-2
Rodez AF
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Aug 14 · at Annecy FC (A)0-2
- Aug 8 · v Stade Lavallois (H)3-1
- May 15 · at Saint-Étienne (A)0-0
- May 12 · at Red Star (A)3-2
- May 9 · at Annecy (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Nantes | Rodez AF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.