Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 · Nantes vs Stade de Reims
Likeliest: Nantes win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nantes41%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Stade de Reims29%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nantes
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 19 · at US Boulogne Côte-d'Opale (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Sochaux (A)0-1
- Sep 7 · v Nancy (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Guingamp (A)3-3
- Aug 22 · v Rodez AF (H)2-5
Stade de Reims
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 18 · v Montpellier (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Nancy (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Guingamp (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Red Star FC (A)4-1
- Aug 24 · v Annecy FC (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Nantes | Stade de Reims |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-6-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 3-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.