Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 22 · 19:45 · Nantes vs Strasbourg
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 43%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nantes32%27%+4
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Strasbourg43%45%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 50% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 55% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 73% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 38% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nantes
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Mar 7 · v Angers SCO (H)0-1
- Mar 1 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-1
- Feb 22 · v Le Havre (H)2-0
- Feb 13 · at Monaco (A)1-3
- Feb 7 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-1
Strasbourg
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Mar 19 · v Rijeka (H)1-1
- Mar 15 · v Paris (H)0-0
- Mar 12 · at Rijeka (A)2-1
- Mar 7 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
- Mar 3 · v Reims (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Nantes | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-7 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.