Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Sep 9 · 19:00 · Napoli vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 42%
A 31% home win. The market says 20%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli31%20%+11
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Arsenal42%54%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 46% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 80% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 26% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 5 · at Inter Milan (A)2-3
- Aug 30 · v Como (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Genoa (A)2-0
- May 24 · v Udinese (H)1-0
- May 17 · at Pisa (A)3-0
Arsenal
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 6 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at Aston Villa (A)1-0
- Aug 21 · v Coventry City (H)3-0
- Aug 16 · v Manchester City (H)3-0
- May 30 · at PSG (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.