Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Nov 22 · 19:45 · Napoli vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Napoli win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli44%42%+2
OursMarket
Draw28%30%−2
OursMarket
Atalanta29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 59% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Nov 9 · at Bologna (A)0-2
- Nov 4 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)0-0
- Nov 1 · v Como (H)0-0
- Oct 28 · at Lecce (A)1-0
- Oct 25 · v Inter (H)3-1
Atalanta
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Nov 9 · v Sassuolo (H)0-3
- Nov 5 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-0
- Nov 1 · at Udinese (A)0-1
- Oct 28 · v Milan (H)1-1
- Oct 25 · at Cremonese (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.