Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Oct 20 · 19:00 · Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt
Likeliest: Napoli win · 62%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli62%60%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Bodø/Glimt16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Venezia (A)0-1
- Oct 17 · at Sassuolo (A)4-1
- Oct 13 · at Villarreal (A)1-3
- Oct 10 · v Frosinone (H)3-0
- Oct 4 · v Como (H)1-2
Bodø/Glimt
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at HamKam (A)2-0
- Oct 14 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Kristiansund BK (H)3-1
- Oct 1 · at Rana FK (A)6-2
- Sep 20 · at SK Brann (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.