Serie A (Italy) · Mon, May 11 · 18:45 · Napoli vs Bologna
Likeliest: Napoli win · 63%
We make it 65% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli63%61%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%23%−4
OursMarket
Bologna18%16%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 50% | −16 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 48% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 84% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 79% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- May 2 · at Como (A)0-0
- Apr 24 · v Cremonese (H)4-0
- Apr 18 · v Lazio (H)0-2
- Apr 12 · at Parma (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v AC Milan (H)1-0
Bologna
WinLossLossLossDraw
- May 3 · v Cagliari (H)0-0
- Apr 25 · v Roma (H)0-2
- Apr 19 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Apr 16 · at Aston Villa (A)0-4
- Apr 12 · v Lecce (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.