Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Sep 13 · 16:00 · Napoli vs Bologna
Likeliest: Napoli win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli54%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%27%+1
OursMarket
Bologna19%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 9 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Inter Milan (A)2-3
- Aug 30 · v Como (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Genoa (A)2-0
- May 24 · v Udinese (H)1-0
Bologna
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 6 · v Sassuolo (H)2-2
- Aug 31 · at Atalanta (A)0-1
- Aug 24 · v Lazio (H)0-1
- May 23 · v Inter (H)3-3
- May 17 · at Atalanta (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.