Coppa Italia (Italy) · Wed, Dec 3 · 17:00 · Napoli vs Cagliari
Likeliest: Napoli win · 56%
A 20% away win. The market says 14%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli56%63%−7
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Cagliari20%14%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 86% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 37% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 82% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Nov 30 · at Roma (A)1-0
- Nov 25 · v Qarabağ (H)2-0
- Nov 22 · v Atalanta (H)3-1
- Nov 9 · at Bologna (A)0-2
- Nov 4 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)0-0
Cagliari
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Nov 29 · at Juventus (A)1-2
- Nov 22 · v Genoa (H)3-3
- Nov 8 · at Como (A)0-0
- Nov 3 · at Lazio (A)0-2
- Oct 30 · v Sassuolo (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.