Coppa Italia (Italy) · Tue, Feb 10 · 20:00 · Napoli vs Como
Likeliest: Napoli win · 44%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli44%35%+9
OursMarket
Draw25%31%−6
OursMarket
Como31%34%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 41% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 49% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 65% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 69% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 51% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Feb 7 · at Genoa (A)3-2
- Jan 31 · v Fiorentina (H)2-1
- Jan 28 · v Chelsea (H)2-3
- Jan 25 · at Juventus (A)0-3
- Jan 20 · at FC København (A)1-1
Como
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Feb 1 · v Atalanta (H)0-0
- Jan 27 · at Fiorentina (A)3-1
- Jan 24 · v Torino (H)6-0
- Jan 19 · at Lazio (A)3-0
- Jan 15 · v AC Milan (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.