Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Aug 30 · 16:30 · Napoli vs Como
Likeliest: Napoli win · 41%
We make it 65% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli41%38%+3
OursMarket
Draw28%31%−3
OursMarket
Como31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 41% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 62% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 55% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Aug 22 · at Genoa (A)2-0
- May 24 · v Udinese (H)1-0
- May 17 · at Pisa (A)3-0
- May 11 · v Bologna (H)2-3
- May 2 · at Como (A)0-0
Como
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Aug 22 · at Udinese (A)1-1
- May 24 · at Cremonese (A)4-1
- May 17 · v Parma (H)1-0
- May 10 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
- May 2 · v Napoli (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.