Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Apr 24 · 18:45 · Napoli vs Cremonese
Likeliest: Napoli win · 64%
We make it 62% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli64%71%−7
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Cremonese15%10%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 50% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 41% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 90% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 29% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 88% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Apr 18 · v Lazio (H)0-2
- Apr 12 · at Parma (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v AC Milan (H)1-0
- Mar 20 · at Cagliari (A)1-0
- Mar 14 · v Lecce (H)2-1
Cremonese
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Apr 19 · v Torino (H)0-0
- Apr 11 · at Cagliari (A)0-1
- Apr 5 · v Bologna (H)1-2
- Mar 21 · at Parma (A)2-0
- Mar 16 · v Fiorentina (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.