Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Mar 9 · 14:00 · Napoli vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Napoli win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Napoli42%——
OursMarket
Draw24%——
OursMarket
Fiorentina33%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Mar 1 · v Inter (H)1-1
- Feb 23 · at Como (A)1-2
- Feb 15 · at Lazio (A)2-2
- Feb 9 · v Udinese (H)1-1
- Feb 2 · at Roma (A)1-1
Fiorentina
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Mar 6 · at Panathinaikos (A)2-3
- Feb 28 · v Lecce (H)1-0
- Feb 23 · at Hellas Verona (A)0-1
- Feb 16 · v Como (H)0-2
- Feb 10 · at Inter (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-1 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.