Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Jan 31 · 17:00 · Napoli vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Napoli win · 47%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli47%55%−8
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Fiorentina28%18%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 47% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 48% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 82% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 45% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 75% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Jan 28 · v Chelsea (H)2-3
- Jan 25 · at Juventus (A)0-3
- Jan 20 · at FC København (A)1-1
- Jan 17 · v Sassuolo (H)1-0
- Jan 14 · v Parma (H)0-0
Fiorentina
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Jan 27 · v Como (H)1-3
- Jan 24 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
- Jan 18 · at Bologna (A)2-1
- Jan 11 · v AC Milan (H)1-1
- Jan 7 · at Lazio (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.