Serie A (Italy) · Wed, Jan 7 · 17:30 · Napoli vs Hellas Verona
Likeliest: Napoli win · 64%
We make it 51% for both teams to score. The market says 38%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli64%70%−7
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Hellas Verona17%10%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 46% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 38% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 90% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 30% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 88% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
WinLossLossWinWin
- Jan 4 · at Lazio (A)2-0
- Dec 28 · at Cremonese (A)2-0
- Dec 14 · at Udinese (A)0-1
- Dec 10 · at Benfica (A)0-2
- Dec 7 · v Juventus (H)2-1
Hellas Verona
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Jan 4 · v Torino (H)0-3
- Dec 28 · at Milan (A)0-3
- Dec 14 · at Fiorentina (A)2-1
- Dec 6 · v Atalanta (H)3-1
- Nov 29 · at Genoa (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.