Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Dec 7 · 19:45 · Napoli vs Juventus
Likeliest: Juventus win · 42%
A 42% away win. The market says 29%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli32%39%−8
OursMarket
Draw26%32%−5
OursMarket
Juventus42%29%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 38% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 71% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 61% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 68% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 58% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Dec 3 · v Cagliari (H)1-1
- Nov 30 · at Roma (A)1-0
- Nov 25 · v Qarabağ (H)2-0
- Nov 22 · v Atalanta (H)3-1
- Nov 9 · at Bologna (A)0-2
Juventus
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Dec 2 · v Udinese (H)2-0
- Nov 29 · v Cagliari (H)2-1
- Nov 25 · at Bodø / Glimt (A)3-2
- Nov 22 · at Fiorentina (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v Torino (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.