Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Apr 18 · 16:00 · Napoli vs Lazio
Likeliest: Napoli win · 43%
A 28% away win. The market says 14%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli43%62%−19
OursMarket
Draw29%24%+5
OursMarket
Lazio28%14%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 44% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 42% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 86% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 38% | +20 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 76% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 82% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Apr 12 · at Parma (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v AC Milan (H)1-0
- Mar 20 · at Cagliari (A)1-0
- Mar 14 · v Lecce (H)2-1
- Mar 6 · v Torino (H)2-1
Lazio
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Apr 13 · at Fiorentina (A)0-1
- Apr 4 · v Parma (H)1-1
- Mar 22 · at Bologna (A)2-0
- Mar 15 · v AC Milan (H)1-0
- Mar 9 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.