Serie A (Italy) · Wed, Jan 14 · 17:30 · Napoli vs Parma
Likeliest: Napoli win · 50%
A 23% away win. The market says 10%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli50%71%−21
OursMarket
Draw27%19%+8
OursMarket
Parma23%10%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 40% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 90% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 29% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 81% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 88% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Jan 11 · at Inter (A)2-2
- Jan 7 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-2
- Jan 4 · at Lazio (A)2-0
- Dec 28 · at Cremonese (A)2-0
- Dec 14 · at Udinese (A)0-1
Parma
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Jan 11 · at Lecce (A)2-1
- Jan 7 · v Inter (H)0-2
- Jan 3 · at Sassuolo (A)1-1
- Dec 27 · v Fiorentina (H)1-0
- Dec 13 · v Lazio (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.