Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Feb 15 · 19:45 · Napoli vs Roma
Likeliest: Napoli win · 41%
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 43%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli41%37%+4
OursMarket
Draw28%34%−6
OursMarket
Roma32%29%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 33% | +24 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 43% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 63% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 66% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 56% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Feb 10 · v Como (H)1-1
- Feb 7 · at Genoa (A)3-2
- Jan 31 · v Fiorentina (H)2-1
- Jan 28 · v Chelsea (H)2-3
- Jan 25 · at Juventus (A)0-3
Roma
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Feb 9 · v Cagliari (H)2-0
- Feb 2 · at Udinese (A)0-1
- Jan 29 · at Panathinaikos (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v AC Milan (H)1-1
- Jan 22 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.