Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:00 · Napoli vs Roma
Likeliest: Roma win · 41%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Roma41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Venezia (A)0-1
- Oct 17 · at Sassuolo (A)4-1
- Oct 13 · at Villarreal (A)1-3
- Oct 10 · v Frosinone (H)3-0
- Oct 4 · v Como (H)1-2
Roma
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Genoa (H)2-0
- Oct 14 · v Real Madrid (H)3-4
- Oct 11 · at Como (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Inter Milan (H)2-2
- Sep 14 · at Torino (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.