Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 24 · 16:00 · Napoli vs Udinese
Likeliest: Napoli win · 46%
A 28% away win. The market says 14%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Napoli46%63%−18
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+4
OursMarket
Udinese28%14%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 86% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 37% | +18 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 82% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Napoli
LossWinDrawLossWin
- May 17 · at Pisa (A)3-0
- May 11 · v Bologna (H)2-3
- May 2 · at Como (A)0-0
- Apr 24 · v Cremonese (H)4-0
- Apr 18 · v Lazio (H)0-2
Udinese
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- May 17 · v Cremonese (H)0-1
- May 9 · at Cagliari (A)2-0
- May 2 · v Torino (H)2-0
- Apr 27 · at Lazio (A)3-3
- Apr 18 · v Parma (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Napoli | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.