3rd Division, Group 2 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:30 · Nardo vs Herd
Likeliest: Nardo win · 53%
A 25% draw. The market says 18%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nardo53%66%−14
OursMarket
Draw25%18%+7
OursMarket
Herd23%16%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 75% | −27 |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 84% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 34% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 82% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 80% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nardo
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 10 · at Byasen Toppfotball (A)3-1
- Oct 3 · v Strindheim (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at NTNUI (A)5-2
- Sep 21 · v Ranheim 2 (H)4-1
- Sep 13 · at Rosenborg BK II (A)5-2
Herd
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 9 · v Spjelkavik (H)2-1
- Oct 2 · at Molde FK II (A)2-6
- Sep 26 · v FK Kvik (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Byasen Toppfotball (A)1-6
- Sep 12 · v Orkla (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Nardo | Herd |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 0-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.