3rd Division, Group 2 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 · Nardo vs Strindheim
Likeliest: Strindheim win · 53%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 53% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nardo27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Strindheim53%50%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 75% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 38% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nardo
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 26 · at NTNUI (A)5-2
- Sep 21 · v Ranheim 2 (H)4-1
- Sep 13 · at Rosenborg BK II (A)5-2
- Sep 5 · v Spjelkavik (H)4-2
- Aug 15 · v Melhus (H)1-3
Strindheim
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 26 · v Molde FK II (H)10-0
- Sep 19 · at Volda (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v FK Kvik (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Byasen Toppfotball (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Melhus (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Nardo | Strindheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-3 | 7-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 88% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 67% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.