Major League Soccer (USA) · Thu, Oct 15 · 00:30 · Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City
Likeliest: Nashville SC win · 73%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 73% for the home win. The market says 74%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nashville SC73%74%−2
OursMarket
Draw17%16%+1
OursMarket
Sporting Kansas City11%10%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 90% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 26% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 84% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 88% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nashville SC
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Austin FC (A)4-1
- Sep 27 · v Toronto FC (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Chicago Fire (H)3-0
- Sep 12 · at Inter Miami CF (A)2-2
- Sep 9 · at Toronto FC (A)1-2
Sporting Kansas City
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Portland Timbers (H)3-3
- Oct 2 · at Seattle Sounders FC (A)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Houston Dynamo (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Philadelphia Union (H)3-4
- Sep 13 · v Los Angeles FC (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Nashville SC | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 1-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.