Serie B (Brazil) · Fri, Aug 28 · 23:30 · Náutico vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Náutico win · 45%
We make it 49% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Náutico45%47%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Athletic Club29%25%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 43% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 75% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 65% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Náutico
DrawDrawDrawWinDraw
- Aug 23 · at São Bernardo (A)1-1
- Aug 19 · v Ceará (H)1-0
- Aug 14 · at Ponte Preta (A)1-1
- Aug 9 · v Atlético Goianiense (H)1-1
- Jul 26 · at Criciúma (A)0-0
Athletic Club
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Aug 27 · at Barcelona (A)0-2
- Aug 24 · v Novorizontino (H)1-4
- Aug 22 · v Sevilla (H)1-3
- Aug 20 · v CRB (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · at América Mineiro (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Náutico | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.