Serie B (Brazil) · Sun, Oct 11 · 20:30 · Náutico vs Vila Nova FC
Likeliest: Náutico win · 38%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Náutico38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Vila Nova FC31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 43% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Náutico
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 8 · v Novorizontino (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Fortaleza (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Sport Recife (H)3-1
- Sep 22 · at Cuiabá (A)0-3
- Sep 15 · v Operário-PR (H)3-3
Vila Nova FC
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 7 · v Cuiabá (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · at Botafogo-SP (A)1-0
- Sep 25 · v Londrina (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · v América Mineiro (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at Avaí (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Náutico | Vila Nova FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 80% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.