Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Dec 20 · 19:00 · NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 42%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen51%42%+9
OursMarket
Draw21%24%−3
OursMarket
Ajax28%34%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 66% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 58% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 55% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Dec 16 · at AFC (A)3-1
- Dec 13 · at Telstar (A)2-2
- Dec 7 · at FC Volendam (A)3-2
- Nov 29 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)3-1
- Nov 23 · at Feyenoord (A)4-2
Ajax
WinWinWinWinWin
- Dec 17 · at Excelsior Maassluis (A)7-2
- Dec 14 · v Feyenoord (H)2-0
- Dec 10 · at Qarabağ (A)4-2
- Dec 6 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)3-1
- Nov 30 · v FC Groningen (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.