Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Aug 19 · 19:00 · NEC Nijmegen vs Bodø/Glimt
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 37%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen52%37%+15
OursMarket
Draw20%24%−4
OursMarket
Bodø/Glimt28%39%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 65% | −21 |
| Both teams score | 71% | 66% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 61% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 63% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 49% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Aug 15 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)4-1
- Aug 11 · v Olympiacos FC (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · v SC Telstar (H)1-2
- Aug 4 · at Olympiacos FC (A)0-0
- May 17 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-1
Bodø/Glimt
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Aug 11 · v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (H)2-2
- Aug 8 · at Vålerenga IF (A)2-1
- Aug 4 · at Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (A)3-3
- Jul 31 · v Lillestrøm SK (H)4-0
- Jul 26 · at Sandefjord Fotball (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.