Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Tue, Sep 8 · 16:45 · NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 47%
A 31% away win. The market says 16%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen47%64%−18
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Excelsior31%16%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 72% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 65% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 84% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 36% | +18 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 80% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 5 · v Feyenoord (H)1-3
- Aug 29 · at PEC Zwolle (A)3-1
- Aug 25 · at Bodø/Glimt (A)0-3
- Aug 19 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)1-3
- Aug 15 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)4-1
Excelsior
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 5 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)3-0
- Aug 29 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)2-1
- Aug 15 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-2
- Aug 7 · at SC Cambuur (A)4-0
- May 17 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.