KNVB Beker (Netherlands) · Wed, Feb 4 · 17:45 · NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 62%
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen62%72%−10
OursMarket
Draw21%16%+4
OursMarket
FC Volendam17%11%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 69% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 89% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 28% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 84% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 87% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Jan 31 · at AZ (A)3-1
- Jan 24 · v PEC Zwolle (H)2-1
- Jan 20 · at De Treffers (A)2-1
- Jan 17 · at NAC Breda (A)4-3
- Dec 20 · v Ajax (H)2-2
FC Volendam
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Feb 1 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)1-1
- Jan 24 · at Ajax (A)0-2
- Jan 18 · v FC Utrecht (H)2-1
- Jan 15 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-1
- Jan 10 · at AZ (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-0-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.