Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Mar 8 · 19:00 · NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 51%
A 27% away win. The market says 12%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen51%70%−19
OursMarket
Draw22%17%+5
OursMarket
FC Volendam27%12%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 69% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 59% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 88% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 30% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 83% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 85% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Mar 3 · v PSV (H)3-2
- Feb 28 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-3
- Feb 21 · at Ajax (A)1-1
- Feb 17 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-1
- Feb 11 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-3
FC Volendam
LossWinWinLossWin
- Mar 1 · v FC Groningen (H)3-2
- Feb 21 · at NAC Breda (A)0-1
- Feb 13 · v PSV (H)2-1
- Feb 7 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-1
- Feb 4 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.