Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Apr 12 · 12:30 · NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 61%
A 61% home win. The market says 43%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen61%43%+18
OursMarket
Draw19%25%−6
OursMarket
Feyenoord20%32%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 73% | 69% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 68% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 57% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 75% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 57% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Apr 4 · at Excelsior (A)2-0
- Mar 22 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-2
- Mar 14 · at PSV (A)3-2
- Mar 8 · v FC Volendam (H)3-0
- Mar 3 · v PSV (H)3-2
Feyenoord
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Apr 5 · at FC Volendam (A)0-0
- Mar 22 · v Ajax (H)1-1
- Mar 15 · v Excelsior (H)2-1
- Mar 8 · at NAC Breda (A)3-3
- Mar 1 · at FC Twente (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.